COP30: Earth is out of time 

On November 10, 2025, world leaders will be gathering for 2 weeks in Brazil for the 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), also known as COP30 climate summit, considered one of the largest multilateral bodies in the UN system.

Belém, where the conference will be held, is considered the “gateway” to the Amazon rainforest, representing a major symbolic site for climate talks to be conducted. However, will the outcomes translate into actionable policies, or will they remain mere vocal pledges?

History of climate talks

The COPs are annual meetings where countries, non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and other relevant stakeholders discuss global efforts to combat climate change and negotiate necessary agreements to curb this worldwide phenomenon.

Global awareness of climate change as a political and scientific issue emerged prominently during the 1980s. Leaders such as United Kingdom Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher and United States President George H. W. Bush addressed the United Nations, warning of environmental degradation and urging international cooperation to protect the planet. Their speeches reflected a growing recognition of the “greenhouse effect,” backed by rising global temperatures and advances in climate science and computer modelling.

To coordinate global responses, the UN established the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1988 and held the 1992 Rio Earth Summit, which produced key frameworks such as Agenda 21 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The UNFCCC, effective from 1994, introduced the principle of “common but differentiated responsibilities,” acknowledging the unequal historical contributions of nations to greenhouse gas emissions. Developed countries were expected to lead in emission reductions, while developing nations were granted flexibility to pursue economic growth.

Moreover, the Kyoto Protocol, signed at COP3 in 1997, became the first treaty mandating emission cuts from industrialized countries (an average of 5.2% below 1990 levels by 2012). However, US refusal to ratify the treaty weakened its impact. Subsequent COP meetings focused on technical mechanisms such as carbon trading, culminating in the 2007 Bali Roadmap, which aimed to involve both developed and developing nations in post-Kyoto negotiations.

Meanwhile, COP15 in Copenhagen (2009) was anticipated as a turning point but descended into disarray due to poor coordination and political divisions between rich and poor nations. The outcome, the non-binding Copenhagen Accord, replaced binding targets with voluntary pledges, marking a shift toward a bottom-up approach to climate commitments. Nonetheless, this framework laid the groundwork for future agreements, including the 2015 Paris Agreement. The latter historic deal was reached at COP21 in Paris, which included unprecedented diplomatic effort and scientific consensus to limit global warming to “well below 2°C,” with aspirations for 1.5°C. Subsequent IPCC reports emphasized that achieving the 1.5°C goal requires halving CO2 emissions by 2030 and reaching net zero by mid-century.

COP26 in Glasgow (2021) revitalized momentum after the pandemic and the US reentry under President Biden. The resulting Glasgow Climate Pact reaffirmed the 1.5°C target, called for “phasing down” coal, finalized rules for carbon markets, and urged stronger annual pledges, although many commitments remained insufficient.

Later conferences, notably COP27 in Egypt in 2022, struggled amid geopolitical crises, including the war in Ukraine and energy insecurity. COP27 achieved a breakthrough in establishing a “loss and damage” fund to support vulnerable nations but failed to advance emission targets or ensure financial pledges.

Reasons behind the COPs failures

Although major pledges and commitments were agreed upon, especially in the 2015 Paris Agreement, the majority of them have yet to materialize on the ground. To understand the failures, one must look at the rise of nationalism, economic competition and Global South vulnerability.

Nationalism: Unlike patriotism, nationalism is an ideology that elevates one nation or nationality above all others and that places primary emphasis on promotion of its culture and interests as opposed to those of other nations. As this phenomenon is on the rise in the US and Europe, particularly, countries are tending to put national interests above all else, including multilateral efforts. This could drastically impact climate change talks and policies as nationalist leaders and policymakers could undermine global partnerships to curb the devastating repercussions. Such approach was evident when US President Donald Trump withdrew form the 2015 Paris Agreement and cut crucial international aid and funding.

Economic Competition: Closely related to nationalism is the issue of economic competition. Policies and actions meant to curb climate change are not cheap, but rather expensive and can impact several businesses and individuals. Whether it is to apply the required filters or cutting down on oil, these policies, although environment-friendly, would alter day-to-day lives and cause major losses for various businesses and industries that heavily rely on fossil fuels. With the ongoing fierce economic rivalry between major powers, most notably the US and China, countries are reluctant to deliberately cause harm to their industries and population in order to implement crucial climate policies.

Global South Vulnerability: The Global South has long been marginalized, neglected and exploited. Although home to the world’s major natural resources and precious metals, countries are unable to benefit from them due to corruption, crises and international exploitation. As the Global South, especially Africa and various islands, face the breadth of the climate change effects (such as droughts and floodings), they have continuously called for increased international aid and funding to assist them not only during post-environmental crises but also investing in prevention projects, as well as ensuring sincere global commitments regarding climate change.

COP30 agenda and promised outcomes

COP30 leadership claimed that this year, the summit will revolve around a key goal: “the COP of implementation and adaptation.” The conference will aim for serious commitments and action plans, including limiting the global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius and advancing climate finance commitments (especially for vulnerable Global South countries).

However, as the amount of human-emitted CO2 has nearly doubled during the last 3 decades, global climate change talks failing to effectively materialize and experts believing that the global warming levels decreasing below the 2°C target being highly unlikely by 2030, will the COP30 truly differ from previous ones?